Analyst Ecosystem Update

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Analyst Twitter Directory – On November 5 and 7, SageCircle added a total 70 analysts to the directory and changed the entries of seven.

Forrester Research has released its 10Q for 3rd Quarter 2009. There will be an analysis by SageCircle on Monday, November 9th.

People on the Move

CMS Watch – Apoorv Durga (Twitter, blog) joined covering portals and content management.

Forrester – Natalie Lambert (Twitter) departs to Continue reading

Gartner won dismissal of ZL lawsuit, but ZL can file an amended complaint

This dismissal by the judge hearing the case does not mean the issue has been settled as ZL Technologies can pursue other legal options.

Related SageCircle posts:

From the Research Magazine website: Round one goes to Gartner in libel battle

5 November 2009 | By Brian Tarran

Gartner has succeeded in dismissing a libel complaint brought by a software company angry at being described as a ‘niche’ player – though the vendor has been granted leave to file an amended complaint.

ZLTI v Gartner in logos

District Court Judge Jeremy Fogel agreed with the IT analyst’s argument that its Magic Quadrant reports and the positioning of ZL Technologies in the ‘niche’ quadrant constituted “non-actionable Continue reading

AMR Research executives gives an indication on the strength of their business

logo-amr-research.gifWith only two public companies,* Forrester and Gartner, in the advisory analyst/market research industry it is difficult to obtain details about how analyst firms are doing in this economy. Frankly, most firms will not share publicly their sales and client numbers. As a consequence, SageCircle looks for other data points about what is happening in the analyst market. 

AMR Research CEO Tony Friscia and CRO Bruce Richardson made some interesting statements about AMR’s sales in the October 30th “AMR Research’s First Thing Monday” podcast titled “SAP’s Earnings Call” (available on iTunes and AMR’s podcast webpage). While discussing the state of the ERP market, Tony said:

“…Let’s look at this through the lens of our business. I think in many ways our business is a leading indicator. When a recession is looming we see a downturn and how companies work with us. When things are getting better we tend to see ahead of the curve. Are we seeing the end of a cyclical trend? Our business in the last three months has been very, very strong. …”

Because Tony was using this point about AMR sales in the context of a broader discussion about the ups-and-downs of the enterprise software market in a recession, SageCircle interprets it as likely true and not spin to make AMR look better. Certainly AMR had a large layoff in the first week of January. In addition, Tony and Bruce were both ‘gloom gus’es during many podcasts through Continue reading

HENRY Corporation launches – Represents former senior IDC EMEA analysts

Logo - Henry CorporationHere is an interesting announcement concerning the launch of a new ICT market research and marketing services firm that brings together former senior IDC analysts who were caught in IDG’s right-sizing exercise. A few points about the HENRY Corporation:

  • Each analyst is also an independent practitioner, some with a firm name and some under their name
  • With the exception of Martin Hingley (Twitter,  blog), most of the Fellows are not active users of social media
  • With the exception of Simone de Bruin’s LinkedResearch website and to a lesser extent Hingley’s blog, none of the other Fellows have a formal web presence

SageCircle’s initial impression is that HENRY Corporation will be the marketing function as well as sales organization for this group of former IDC senior analysts. As such it will be somewhat more involved with its portfolio of analysts than Valley View Ventures, which acts simply as a sales agent for its associated analysts and boutiques.

Below is a blog post by Hingley on the launch, followed by the official announcement.

Overview from Martin Hingley, one of the original HENRY Fellows:

The Henry Corporation Brings Familiar Experts Back To Support The ITC Industry

What happens when a major market research organization off-loads most of its senior analysts in EMEA? I’m sure it does its best to run its services with newer researchers. However many industry execs will miss the quality of support, ideas and advice that they once had. In the case of my old company some familiar faces, now independent, are also as eager as ever to Continue reading

Gartner Q3 2009 earnings

This analysis does not look at areas of interest to investors, but seeks to pull out insights that are relevant to clients and prospects of the “Big Two” advisory analyst firms as well as communications and IT vendor analyst relations (AR) teams.  

logo-gartner.gifGartner, Inc. (NYSE:IT) announced its Q3 2009 earnings on October 30, 2009. See the end of this blog post for a summary and link to the press release.

In general Gartner’s results were much as expected at this point in a recession. All the key statistics were down year-over-year, but improved (i.e., less bad) quarter-to-quarter sequentially. All statistics are year-over-year and are FX neutral unless noted.

  • Overall revenues: $267.5m, down 7%.
  • Research: $187.7m, down 4%.
  • Events: $16m, down 6%.
  • Consulting: $65.7m, down 16%.

Demonstrating that a well-managed advisory analyst firm can be a cash machine, Gartner generated $55.1m in cash in Q3, only a half-million below Q3 2008. For the full year, Gartner raised its guidance on cash flow to $125m to $135m. Cash and equivalents at the end Q3 2009 was $113m, down from $141m at the end of Q3 2008. During the first nine months of 2009, Gartner primarily used cash to repay $151m in debt. Gartner retains $250m in available credit, which with the $113m in cash should give it the necessary resources to maintain its business as well as conduct M&A activity. On the M&A front, CEO Hall maintained the position that M&A opportunities are being constantly evaluated, but unlike Forrester, who mentioned it was actively evaluating potential deals, he provided no color to that remark.

Pricing

In his remarks CEO Gene Hall mentioned that Gartner’s most recent price increase was holding. Hall also said that Gartner was implementing a price increase on November 1, 2009. Yes, Gartner has been and continues to raise prices even in a recession. This can be attributed to Continue reading

Forrester Research Q3 2009 earnings call

This analysis does not look at areas of interest to investors, but seeks to pull out insights that are relevant to clients and prospects of Forrester Research, the number two advisory analyst firm, as well as communications and IT vendor analyst relations (AR) teams. 

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This post is part one of two parts when it comes to an analysis of the Forrester Q3 earnings. This is because the 10-Q, which will come out within two weeks of the earnings call, has more detail than the currently available 8-K and the earnings call.  We will review that document when it is available. 

The key take away from Forrester’s Q3 2009 earnings announcement is that Forrester is weathering this economic downturn much better than the last recession. In that recession, Forrester saw revenues plunge ~34% and experienced a broad and deep reduction in staff. After three quarters in 2009, overall revenue is only down 3% with research revenues actually up 2%. Headcount is 960, down 8% from 2008 year end, but still 23% higher than YE2007. In addition, Forrester currently has 16 sales and 4 research openings so it is not simply reducing headcount, but selectively filling positions as well. Furthermore, CEO George Colony told the Wall Street analysts on today’s call that he plans on adding 10 to 20 sales headcount in the 4th quarter (it is not clear if this expansion includes or is incremental to the current sales job openings on the website). This contrasts with the 51% reduction in staff from YE2000 to YE2002. Finally, at the end of Q3 2009 Forrester is sitting on $280m in cash and short term investments.

Why should this matter to enterprise clients and vendor analyst relations (AR) staff? Because Forrester is not in survival mode it has not had to slash sales or research headcount. Rather it has continued to keep the client–facing staff at a level that makes retaining existing and adding new enterprise clients relatively straightforward. This means that Forrester’s ability to maintain its research agenda and marketplace influence are not being seriously imperiled as 2009 comes to a close.

For AR teams this means that there is unlikely to be disruptive analyst turnover that would negatively impact analyst lists and interactions plans. Unfortunately, there is still the likelihood that sales representatives and analysts will be hitting the vendor community hard for incremental consulting/service units engagements and Roleview seats. Vendors should realize that not buying Continue reading

Gartner, Inc. 3Q 2009 earnings call is scheduled – will it continue to add enterprise clients?

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Gartner, Inc.  (NYSE:IT) announced that its earnings conference call will be on October 30, Friday, at 10:00 a.m. ET. The earnings call is a webcast that you can find on Gartner’s investor relations webpage. This earnings call happens the day after Forrester’s Q3 call.

This earnings call should provide critical insight into whether enterprise technology buyers are changing their advisory analyst contract purchasing behaviors. In recent recessions, IT managers (the typical tech buyer client) have, as a group, been steady in their purchases of Gartner and Forrester services (and Giga and META before they were acquired). Most of the advisory analyst firm research syndicated contract revenue volatility is due to vendors who often cut their marketing budgets steeply during recessions.  Because Gartner is not very vendor centric the earnings call information correlates closely to end user activity. So far in 2009, Gartner has added 555 $1bn+ enterprise clients:

  • 249 new enterprise clients Q1 2009
  • 305 new enterprise clients in Q2 2009

Enterprise technology buyer purchasing patterns are important because they are an important indicator of Continue reading

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